PopSpot — Ethiopia

PopSpot

Ethiopia

OpenStreetMap · place= population tag analysis

▲ Upgrade candidates · 9 ▼ Downgrade candidates · 8 ◎ Monitor · 0 Generated · 2026-04-04 09:48 UTC

Disclaimer

Whether a settlement is a village, town, or city depends on a mix of factors — population, character, local identity, available services, and geographic context — none of which point to a single clear answer. Areas near larger settlements may function as suburbs or neighbourhoods rather than distinct places, while remote settlements often feel more significant than raw numbers suggest. Since reasonable mappers frequently disagree on these judgements, any classification changes should be made thoughtfully and with awareness of local context.

Population Distribution

Population distribution by place type for Ethiopia. Dots show individual tagged places, with the maximum, minimum, and median population values highlighted.

Population distribution plot for Ethiopia

Upgrade Candidates

Places whose population is more consistent with the next-higher type's distribution than their own. Ranked by signal strength, then percentile within current type.

#	Name	Type	Population	Own %ile	%ile among next higher	Signal	Edit	OSM
1	ሰመራ / Semera	town	100,000	100%	48%	Strong	iD JOSM Level0	node/1235451313
2	Molale	town	93,800	97%	48%	Strong	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150945344
3	Jarso	village	9,000	100%	28%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/1970777485
4	ዓዲግራት / Adigrat	town	71,453	94%	28%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/298296178
5	`Alemaya	town	63,700	91%	24%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150880950
6	ኣኽሱም / Axum	town	51,790	88%	20%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/298296175
7	Gubre Town	village	5,678	86%	19%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150914624
8	Bona Qabelanka	town	50,000	84%	20%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150899285
9	ሽረ እንዳ ሥላሴ / Shire	town	47,284	81%	20%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/321251656

Downgrade Candidates

Places whose population is more consistent with the next-lower type's distribution than their own. Ranked by signal strength, then percentile within current type.

#	Name	Type	Population	Own %ile	%ile among next lower	Signal	Edit	OSM
1	Dawa Digati	town	1,264	3%	43%	Strong	iD JOSM Level0	node/5027517393
2	አሶሳ / Asosa	city	20,226	4%	50%	Strong	iD JOSM Level0	node/321761901
3	Derba	town	2,188	6%	43%	Strong	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150961406
4	Gish Abay	town	3,385	9%	57%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/321734646
5	Fitche	city	27,493	12%	66%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/1150911295
6	Fiche	city	27,493	12%	66%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/2082499580
7	Tore	town	3,405	12%	57%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/5060896227
8	ጋምቤላ / Gambela	city	31,282	16%	72%	Weak	iD JOSM Level0	node/321376181

Monitor

Places that are consistent with their current type's distribution but sit at an extreme percentile within it. No reclassification signal yet, but worth revisiting as more population data is tagged.

No places in the monitor tier.

Step 1 — Log-normal distribution fit

For each place type (city, town, village), a log-normal distribution is fitted to the population values tagged in OSM. Specifically, the mean and standard deviation of log₁₀(population) are computed, giving each type its own statistical fingerprint.

Step 2 — Log-likelihood ratio (LLR)

Each place is scored under its own type's distribution and under each adjacent type's distribution. A positive LLR means the place's population fits the neighbouring type's distribution better than its own — a statistical signal of potential misclassification. If both adjacent types fire simultaneously, the stronger LLR determines the flag direction.

Step 3 — Percentile corroboration

The LLR signal is cross-checked against percentile ranks: where does this place sit within its own type, and where would it land in the target type? Both signals must agree for a candidate to be rated Strong.

Confidence tiers

Badge	Direction	Criteria (all must hold)
Strong	Upgrade	LLR > 1.0 · own percentile ≥ 75th · target percentile 20–65th
Strong	Downgrade	LLR > 1.0 · own percentile ≤ 25th · target percentile 35–80th
Weak	Either	LLR > 0, but one or more Strong conditions not met
Monitor	—	No LLR signal, but own percentile ≥ 90th (top) or ≤ 10th (bottom)

Why extremes are excluded from Strong

The target-type percentile window deliberately excludes both tails. A place landing below the 20th percentile among the target type would be marginal even there — a weak fit. A place landing above the 65th percentile in the target type is unusually large even for that category, suggesting the reclassification destination may be wrong (should jump two levels) or the tag is erroneous. The middle range confirms the place would be a natural, unremarkable member of the target type — the hallmark of a genuine misclassification.

Table sort order

Within each section, Strong candidates always appear before Weak ones. Within each confidence tier, upgrade candidates are sorted by own-type percentile descending (most overqualified first) and downgrade candidates by own-type percentile ascending (most underqualified first). Monitor entries are sorted by own-type percentile descending.

Statistical flags are prompts for investigation, not conclusions. Place hierarchy in OSM reflects infrastructure, administrative status, and regional importance — population alone cannot capture that.